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2022-based population projections by local authority, age, sex, year and variant

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Next update expected:This dataset is not expected to be updated, but is expected to be replaced in the future

Updates

20th November 2025
Dataset first published.

Main information

Designation
Accredited official statistics
Data provider 1
Welsh Government
Data source 1
Population projections for local authorities in Wales
Data provider 2
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Data source 2
National population projections for Wales
Data provider 3
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Data source 3
Mid-year population estimates

Overview

Summary of dataset and variables

This dataset provides population projections for local authorities in Wales by sex, single year of age, variant and each year from the base year of 2022, through the projection period to 2047. This is the sixth set of population projections published for the 22 local authorities in Wales.

Under variants, there is a principal projection and five additional variant projections. These variants are based on different assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration trends. They include low population, high population, a 10-year average migration variant, a 15-year average migration variant and a zero migration variant.

Data collection or calculation

The population projections for Wales are produced by Knowledge and Analytical Services, Welsh Government. The methodology has been developed in conjunction with the Wales Sub-national Projections Working Group (WaSP). Members of WaSP include representatives with experience of demographic and housing data from Welsh local authorities, Data Cymru and the Welsh Government.

The 2022-based population projections provide statistics on the potential future size and age structure of the population of local authorities in Wales. These projections supersede the previous 2018-based projections.

Population projections are subject to uncertainty and are based on assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration. These projections are not forecasts, and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances, or other factors, such as short-term changes in international migration, might have on demographic behaviour. Population change at the local level may be shaped by economic growth and housing policies, which are not taken into account in these projections.

These local authority population projections are not constrained to the Office for National Statistics’s (ONS) national population projections (ONS). What this means is that the sum of the local authority population projections does not match the national population projections. People who are interested in population projections at the Wales level should use the ONS’s national population projections.

Population projections may differ from published population estimates now and in the near future. We recommend using the most recent mid-year estimates for all years where they are available.

These local authority population projections are based on the mid-year estimates of the population for mid-2022 for local authorities in Wales. The projected population is for 30 June each year.

On 30 July 2025, the ONS published mid-year estimates of the population for Wales and England for mid-2024. Estimates for mid-2022 and mid-2023 were revised by the ONS to incorporate improved international and internal migration data. We have incorporated the revised estimates into these projections.

To take into account the recent changes in the long-term international migration estimates, we decided to adjust the international migration assumptions for these projections. International migration data in these projections have been constrained for each local authority, for both inward and outward international migration, for the period mid-2022 to mid-2023 and mid-2023 to mid-2024, to match the international migration estimated published in the revised mid-year population estimates in July. The method remains unchanged for all other years in the projection period, from mid-2025 onwards.

Further information will be available in the technical report.

Statistical quality

See the local authority population projection statistical release in weblinks.

Rounding applied

Data are rounded independently to the nearest whole number and may not add exactly.

Related reports

Published by

Organisation
Welsh Government
Contact email
stats.popcensus@gov.wales