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2022-based population projection components of change by local authority and year

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Next update expected:This dataset is not expected to be updated, but is expected to be replaced in the future

Updates

23rd January 2026
Dataset first published.

Main information

Designation
Accredited official statistics
Data provider 1
Welsh Government
Data source 1
Population projections for local authorities in Wales
Data provider 2
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Data source 2
National population projections for Wales
Data provider 3
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Data source 3
Mid-year population estimates

Overview

Summary of dataset and variables

This dataset provides the components of change involved in the calculation of the population projections for local authorities in Wales. Data cover the change between each successive projection year and relate to the change from the middle of each year to the middle of the following year. The first year's data represent the change from the base year of mid-2022 to mid-2023, through the projection period to show the change for mid-2046 to mid-2047.

The components of change are only published for the principal projection.

Data collection or calculation

The population projections for Wales are produced by Knowledge and Analytical Services, Welsh Government.

The 2022-based population projections provide statistics on the potential future size and age structure of the population of local authorities in Wales. These projections supersede the previous 2018-based projections.

The methodology has been developed in conjunction with the Wales Sub-national Projections Working Group (WaSP). Members of WaSP include representatives with experience of demographic and housing data from Welsh local authorities, Data Cymru and the Welsh Government.

These local authority population projections are not constrained to the Office for National Statistics’s (ONS) national population projections (ONS). What this means is that the sum of the local authority population projections does not match the national population projections. People who are interested in population projections at the Wales level should use the ONS’s national population projections.

Population projections may differ from published population estimates now and in the near future. We recommend using the most recent mid-year estimates for all years where they are available.

These local authority population projections are based on the mid-year estimates of the population for mid-2022 for local authorities in Wales. The projected population is for 30 June each year.

On 30 July 2025, the ONS published mid-year estimates of the population for Wales and England for mid-2024. Estimates for mid-2022 and mid-2023 were revised by the ONS to incorporate improved international and internal migration data. We have incorporated the revised estimates into these projections.

To take into account the recent changes in the long-term international migration estimates, we decided to adjust the international migration assumptions for these projections. International migration data in these projections have been constrained for each local authority, for both inward and outward international migration, for the period mid-2022 to mid-2023 and mid-2023 to mid-2024, to match the international migration estimated published in the revised mid-year population estimates in July. The method remains unchanged for all other years in the projection period, from mid-2025 onwards.

Further information will be available in the technical report.

Statistical quality

See the local authority population projection statistical release in weblinks.

Rounding applied

Data are rounded independently to the nearest whole number and may not add exactly.

Related reports

Published by

Organisation
Welsh Government
Contact email
stats.popcensus@gov.wales