2018-based population projection components of change by local authority and year

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Next update expected:This dataset is not expected to be updated, but is expected to be replaced in the future

Updates

17th July 2026
Dataset first published.

Main information

Designation
Accredited official statistics
Data provider 1
Welsh Government
Data source 1
Population projections for local authorities in Wales
Data provider 2
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Data source 2
National population projections for Wales
Data provider 3
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Data source 3
Mid-year population estimates
Dataset ID
d7aa0731-b341-4628-8bfb-66929a424e71

Overview

Summary of dataset and variables

This dataset provides the components of change involved in the calculation of the population projections for local authorities in Wales. Data cover the change between each successive projection year and relate to the change from the middle of each year to the middle of the following year. The first year's data represent the change from the base year of mid-2018 to mid-2019, through the projection period to show the change for mid-2042 to mid-2043.

The components of change are only published for the principal projection.

Data collection or calculation

The population projections for Wales are produced by Knowledge and Analytical Services, Welsh Government.

The 2018-based population projections provide statistics on the potential future size and age structure of the population of local authorities in Wales. These projections have been superseded by the 2022-based population projections, which are based on more recent population estimates and demographic trends up to mid-2022.

The methodology has been developed in conjunction with the Wales Sub-national Projections Working Group (WaSP). Members of WaSP include representatives with experience of demographic and housing data from Welsh local authorities, Data Cymru and the Welsh Government.

These local authority population projections are not constrained to the Office for National Statistics’s (ONS) national population projections (ONS). This means that the sum of the local authority population projections does not match the national population projections. Users interested in population projections at the Wales level should use the ONS’s national population projections.

Population projections may differ from published population estimates now and in the near future. We recommend using the most recent mid-year estimates for all years where they are available.

These local authority population projections are based on the mid-year estimates of the population for mid-2018 for local authorities in Wales. The projected population is for 30 June each year.

These projections were produced using the population estimates available at the time and have not been updated to reflect the rebased population estimates published following Census 2021. Users should therefore refer to more recent population projections and estimates where available.

Statistical quality

See the local authority population projection statistical release in weblinks.

Related reports

Published by

Organisation
Welsh Government
Contact email
stats.popcensus@gov.wales