2022-based household projections by local authority, household type, year and variant

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Next update expected:This dataset is not expected to be updated, but is expected to be replaced in the future

Updates

20th November 2025
Dataset first published.

Main information

Designation
Accredited official statistics
Data provider 1
Welsh Government
Data source 1
Population projections for local authorities in Wales
Data provider 2
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Data source 2
2001 Census
Data provider 3
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Data source 3
2011 Census
Data provider 4
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Data source 4
2021 Census

Overview

Summary of dataset and variables

This dataset shows household projections for Wales. It provides an indication of the future number of households and their composition. The projections span the period 2022 to 2047. They are not a prediction or forecast of how many houses should be built in the future. Instead, they show what might happen if past trends continue.

The dataset comprises projected household numbers for each mid-year and area. Household type describes the composition, such as number of people and presence of children.

Under variants, there is a principal projection and five additional variant projections. These variants are based on different assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration trends. They include low population, high population, a 10-year average migration variant, a 15-year average migration variant and a zero migration variant.

Data collection or calculation

The household projections for Wales are produced by Knowledge and Analytical Services, Welsh Government. The methodology has been developed in conjunction with the Wales Sub-national Projections group (WaSP). Members of WaSP include representatives with experience of demographic and housing data from Welsh local authorities, Data Cymru and the Welsh Government.

Household projections are subject to uncertainty and are based on assumptions about future population and household composition. They are not forecasts, and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors, such as the number of homes built, may have on the number of households. Instead, they indicate how many additional households would form if the population of Wales continues to change as it did between mid-2018 and mid-2022, and keeps forming households as it did between 2001, 2011 and 2021.

These household projections use data about household membership rates from the latest available censuses of the population and apply them to the latest local authority population projections.

We have made some changes to the methods for calculating these projections. Further information can be found in the local authority household projections release.

Household projections may differ from published household estimates now and in the near future. We recommend using the most recent household estimates for all years where they are available.

Statistical quality

The household projections are based on assumptions about future trends. They are not forecasts and will differ from actual outcomes.

For more information on the statistical quality, see the statistical release linked in 'Related reports'. This release explains the methodology, assumptions, and limitations.

Rounding applied

The household projections have been rounded to the nearest whole number.

Related reports

Published by

Organisation
Welsh Government
Contact email
stats.popcensus@gov.wales