2022-based projected private household population by local authority, year and variant

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Next update expected:This dataset is not expected to be updated, but is expected to be replaced in the future

Updates

23rd January 2026
Dataset first published.

Main information

Designation
Accredited official statistics
Data provider 1
Welsh Government
Data source 1
Population projections for local authorities in Wales
Data provider 2
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Data source 2
2001 Census
Data provider 3
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Data source 3
2011 Census
Data provider 4
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Data source 4
2021 Census

Overview

Summary of dataset and variables

This dataset shows private household population projections for Wales. It provides an indication of the future number of people living in private households. The projections span the period mid-2022 to mid-2047. They are not a prediction or forecast of housing need in the future. Instead, they show what might happen if past trends continue.

The dataset comprises projected private household population numbers for each mid-year, area and variant.

For the variants, there is a principal projection and five additional variant projections. These variants are based on different assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration trends. They include low population, high population, a 10-year average migration variant, a 15-year average migration variant and a zero migration variant.

Data collection or calculation

The private household population projections for Wales are produced by Knowledge and Analytical Services, Welsh Government.

Private household population projections are subject to uncertainty and are based on assumptions about future population and household composition. They are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors, such as the number of homes built, may have on the private household population. Instead, they indicate how the private household population might change if the population of Wales continues to change as it did between mid-2018 and mid-2022, and keeps forming households as it did between 2001, 2011 and 2021.

These projections use data about household membership rates from the latest available censuses of the population and apply them to the latest local authority population projections.

Private household population projections may differ from published private household population estimates now and in the near future. We recommend using the most recent private household population estimates for all years where they are available.

The methodology has been developed in conjunction with the Wales Sub-national Projections group (WaSP). Members of WaSP include representatives with experience of demographic and housing data from Welsh local authorities, Data Cymru and the Welsh Government.

We have made some changes to the methods for calculating these projections. Further information can be found in the local authority household projections release.

Statistical quality

The projections are based on assumptions about future trends. They are not forecasts and will differ from actual outcomes.

For more information on the statistical quality, see the statistical release linked in 'Related reports'. This release explains the methodology, assumptions, and limitations.

Rounding applied

Data are rounded independently to the nearest whole number and may not add exactly.

Related reports

Published by

Organisation
Welsh Government
Contact email
stats.popcensus@gov.wales