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Estimates of newly arising housing need in Wales (2025-based) by variant, tenure, and year

Data values	Data description	Year (July to June)	Tenure
6,200	Central Estimate	2044-45	Total
6,100	Central Estimate	2043-44	Total
6,300	Central Estimate	2042-43	Total
6,400	Central Estimate	2041-42	Total
6,400	Central Estimate	2040-41	Total
6,400	Central Estimate	2039-40	Total
6,600	Central Estimate	2038-39	Total
6,800	Central Estimate	2037-38	Total
7,000	Central Estimate	2036-37	Total
7,200	Central Estimate	2035-36	Total
7,300	Central Estimate	2034-35	Total
7,600	Central Estimate	2033-34	Total
7,800	Central Estimate	2032-33	Total
8,100	Central Estimate	2031-32	Total
8,200	Central Estimate	2030-31	Total
8,500	Central Estimate	2029-30	Total
5,500	Central Estimate	2029-30	Market
3,000	Central Estimate	2029-30	Affordable
8,700	Central Estimate	2028-29	Total
5,600	Central Estimate	2028-29	Market
3,000	Central Estimate	2028-29	Affordable
8,800	Central Estimate	2027-28	Total
5,700	Central Estimate	2027-28	Market
3,100	Central Estimate	2027-28	Affordable
8,800	Central Estimate	2026-27	Total
5,800	Central Estimate	2026-27	Market
3,100	Central Estimate	2026-27	Affordable
8,900	Central Estimate	2025-26	Total
5,800	Central Estimate	2025-26	Market
3,100	Central Estimate	2025-26	Affordable
7,400	Higher Variant	2044-45	Total
7,400	Higher Variant	2043-44	Total
7,400	Higher Variant	2042-43	Total
7,500	Higher Variant	2041-42	Total
7,600	Higher Variant	2040-41	Total
7,600	Higher Variant	2039-40	Total
7,800	Higher Variant	2038-39	Total
7,900	Higher Variant	2037-38	Total
8,100	Higher Variant	2036-37	Total
8,300	Higher Variant	2035-36	Total
8,300	Higher Variant	2034-35	Total
8,600	Higher Variant	2033-34	Total
8,800	Higher Variant	2032-33	Total
9,000	Higher Variant	2031-32	Total
9,100	Higher Variant	2030-31	Total
9,200	Higher Variant	2029-30	Total
6,000	Higher Variant	2029-30	Market
3,200	Higher Variant	2029-30	Affordable
9,400	Higher Variant	2028-29	Total
6,100	Higher Variant	2028-29	Market
3,300	Higher Variant	2028-29	Affordable
9,500	Higher Variant	2027-28	Total
6,100	Higher Variant	2027-28	Market
3,300	Higher Variant	2027-28	Affordable
9,400	Higher Variant	2026-27	Total
6,100	Higher Variant	2026-27	Market
3,300	Higher Variant	2026-27	Affordable
9,300	Higher Variant	2025-26	Total
6,100	Higher Variant	2025-26	Market
3,200	Higher Variant	2025-26	Affordable
4,500	Lower Variant	2044-45	Total
4,500	Lower Variant	2043-44	Total
4,600	Lower Variant	2042-43	Total
4,700	Lower Variant	2041-42	Total
4,800	Lower Variant	2040-41	Total
4,900	Lower Variant	2039-40	Total
5,000	Lower Variant	2038-39	Total
5,300	Lower Variant	2037-38	Total
5,500	Lower Variant	2036-37	Total
5,800	Lower Variant	2035-36	Total
6,000	Lower Variant	2034-35	Total
6,300	Lower Variant	2033-34	Total
6,500	Lower Variant	2032-33	Total
6,900	Lower Variant	2031-32	Total
7,000	Lower Variant	2030-31	Total
7,200	Lower Variant	2029-30	Total
4,700	Lower Variant	2029-30	Market
2,500	Lower Variant	2029-30	Affordable
7,600	Lower Variant	2028-29	Total
4,900	Lower Variant	2028-29	Market
2,700	Lower Variant	2028-29	Affordable
7,800	Lower Variant	2027-28	Total
5,100	Lower Variant	2027-28	Market
2,800	Lower Variant	2027-28	Affordable
8,000	Lower Variant	2026-27	Total
5,200	Lower Variant	2026-27	Market
2,800	Lower Variant	2026-27	Affordable
8,200	Lower Variant	2025-26	Total
5,300	Lower Variant	2025-26	Market
2,800	Lower Variant	2025-26	Affordable

Next update expected:This dataset is not expected to be updated, but is expected to be replaced in the future

Updates

• 12th February 2026:

  Links updated

• 12th February 2026: Dataset first published.

Main information

• Designation: Official statistics
• Data provider 1: Welsh Government
• Data source 1: Rent Officers Wales
• Data provider 2: Welsh Government
• Data source 2: Household projections for Wales
• Data provider 3: Department for Work and Pensions (DWP)
• Data source 3: Households below average income, Family resources survey

Overview

• Summary of dataset and variables:

  These are 2025-based estimates of newly arising housing need in Wales. They are estimated from the 2022-based household projections. The estimates cover 20 years at a national level. Estimates of newly arising additional housing need by tenure (either market or affordable housing) are for the periods year ending June 2026 to year ending June 2030 only.

  A Chief Statistician’s blog published 12 February, alongside the estimates, explains more about the estimates and what they tell us.

• Data collection or calculation:

  Newly arising need is calculated using year‑on‑year changes in the 2022‑based local authority household projections. The projections model expected household formation based on past trends in births, deaths and migration. The StatsWales tables present: • Annual estimates of newly arising need • A breakdown of newly arising need into market and affordable housing for the first five years • Estimates based on the principal, higher‑variant and lower‑variant projections to illustrate uncertainty

  The tenure split is derived through modelling based on:

  • Household income distributions (pooled HBAI/FRS data, uprated to 2025 prices using UKMOD) • Affordability thresholds (default: spending up to 30% of income on median rent for a 2–3 bed private property) • Median private rents (Welsh Government Rent Officer data) • Assumptions about future changes in rents and incomes (OBR private rental forecast; UKMOD uplift)

  These calculations follow an established methodology reviewed by a Welsh Government technical advisory group.

• Statistical quality:

  The estimates draw on official data sources. All data inputs are quality assured by analysts, and outputs undergo independent checks before publication. Strengths include: • Transparent, established methods • Use of up to date household projections and recent income and rent information • Detailed sensitivity testing of the assumptions used for the tenure split available in the quality report • Clear presentation of uncertainty through higher and lower projection variants

  Limitations include: • Household projections do not reflect future policy changes or unforeseen events • Estimates rely on assumptions about affordability, rent growth and income growth • Tenure split estimates are sensitive to key parameters (e.g. affordability threshold)

  See the Estimates of additional housing need: 2025-based quality report for the ful list of data sources and assumptions

• Related reports:
  • Estimates of Additional Housing Need 2025‑based (main statistical release)
  • Local Authority Household Projections: 2022‑based
  • New House Building in Wales
  • Affordable Housing Provision
  • 2019‑based Estimates of Additional Housing Need
  • Estimates of Additional Housing Need 2025‑based (quality report)
  • Chief Statistician's blog post: New estimates of additional housing need in Wales

Published by

• Organisation: Welsh Government
• Contact email: stats.housing@gov.wales

Metadata

The metadata for this dataset is not included when you download the data. You can download this separately. This contains all the information from the 'About this dataset' tab.