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Estimates of newly arising housing need in Wales (2025-based) by variant, tenure, and year

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Next update expected:This dataset is not expected to be updated, but is expected to be replaced in the future

Updates

12th August 2026

This revision was necessary because the low and high household projection variants used within these estimates, originally published on 20 November 2025, were revised on 4 June 2026 following the identification of a minor error.

Within this revision, we have also included estimates of additional housing need using the 10-year migration household projection variant, alongside other projection variants. Including the 10-year migration variant provides users with an additional point of comparison when considering the potential range of future additional housing need.

The 2024-based ONS national population projections show the Welsh population declining between 2024 and 2049, unlike the 2022-based projections used in these housing need estimates. Updated household projections may show a similar trend. The latest population estimates also show a small decrease between 2024 and 2025. A Chief statistician’s blog published alongside those estimates provides further context.

New housing need estimates will be produced once updated household projections are available. Until then, these figures are likely to be at the upper end of the range.

12th February 2026

Links updated

12th February 2026
Dataset first published.

Main information

Designation
Official statistics
Data provider 1
Welsh Government
Data source 1
Rent Officers Wales
Data provider 2
Welsh Government
Data source 2
Household projections for Wales
Data provider 3
Department for Work and Pensions (DWP)
Data source 3
Households below average income, Family resources survey
Time period covered
July 2025 to June 2045
Dataset ID
a4ffbe85-0476-4ab4-be45-00088c7d424f

Overview

Summary of dataset and variables

These are 2025-based estimates of newly arising housing need in Wales. They are estimated from the 2022-based household projections. The estimates cover 20 years at a national level. Estimates of newly arising additional housing need by tenure (either market or affordable housing) are for the periods year ending June 2026 to year ending June 2030 only.

A Chief Statistician’s blog published 12 February, alongside the estimates, explains more about the estimates and what they tell us.

Data collection or calculation

Newly arising need is calculated using year‑on‑year changes in the 2022‑based local authority household projections. The projections model expected household formation based on past trends in births, deaths and migration. The StatsWales tables present: • Annual estimates of newly arising need • A breakdown of newly arising need into market and affordable housing for the first five years • Estimates based on the principal, higher, lower, and 10-year migration projections to illustrate uncertainty

The tenure split is derived through modelling based on:

• Household income distributions (pooled HBAI/FRS data, uprated to 2025 prices using UKMOD) • Affordability thresholds (default: spending up to 30% of income on median rent for a 2–3 bed private property) • Median private rents (Welsh Government Rent Officer data) • Assumptions about future changes in rents and incomes (OBR private rental forecast; UKMOD uplift)

These calculations follow an established methodology reviewed by a Welsh Government technical advisory group.

Statistical quality

The estimates draw on official data sources. All data inputs are quality assured by analysts, and outputs undergo independent checks before publication. Strengths include: • Transparent, established methods • Use of up to date household projections and recent income and rent information • Detailed sensitivity testing of the assumptions used for the tenure split available in the quality report • Clear presentation of uncertainty through higher, lower and 10-year migration projection variants

Limitations include: • Household projections do not reflect future policy changes or unforeseen events • Estimates rely on assumptions about affordability, rent growth and income growth • Tenure split estimates are sensitive to key parameters (e.g. affordability threshold)

See the Estimates of additional housing need: 2025-based quality report for the ful list of data sources and assumptions

Rounding applied

All values rounded to the nearest 100

Related reports

Published by

Organisation
Welsh Government
Contact email
stats.housing@gov.wales